Pre-registered statistical studies of the forces that mechanically move markets — dealer hedging, options flow, volatility pricing. Each study states its hypothesis, its trigger, and the result that would kill it, before it runs. Validated or refuted, the outcome is published either way.
Vol. 1 · Pre-registration issue — 50 study definitions · 0 validated · 0 refuted · awaiting live data — no results yet
Research corpus0 sessions captured · 0 research-grade · 0 studies validated— awaiting the historical backfill; verdicts publish as research-grade sessions accrue
Evidence, before we test it
21 of these are popular market-structure claims with weak public evidence — narratives our competitors sell as fact. We expect the data to refute many of them, and we’ll publish those refutations as prominently as the survivors.
47 of 50 studies are Elite-only. Featured studies are free to read in full; Elite members get the complete library — methodology, statistics, and every future result. Unlock with Elite →
Options dealers who are net short gamma must hedge in the **direction** of the move — sell into weakness, buy into strength — which mechanically **amplifies** realized range. Dealers net long gamma hedge **against** the move (buy weakness, sell strength), **damping** it. Under the naive dealer convention (dealers long calls, short puts) the sign of aggregate gamma exposure (GEX) at a given spot tells you which regime the tape is in.
1.1Net gamma sign → realized range
Sessions whose 9:35am net GEX sits in the bottom decile of the trailing 60 sessions realize a wider RTH range (range_pct and range_vs_em) than top-decile sessions, and both tails differ from the all-session baseline.
Dealers short gamma must hedge in the direction of the move (sell into weakness, buy into strength), amplifying realized range; dealers long gamma hedge against the move, damping it. This is the least deniable mechanical claim in index options — and the premise of the entire product.
Prior evidence
Barbon & Buraschi document gamma-driven fragility in equity markets; SqueezeMetrics' GEX whitepaper popularized the dealer-gamma/realized-vol relationship; the damping/amplifying asymmetry is consistent across practitioner research. Strongest prior in the catalog. Our test adds: OUR construction (naive convention, Black-76 on forward, specs/03), OUR symbols, intraday horizons, honest baselines.
What would kill it
Top- and bottom-decile range_pct distributions are statistically indistinguishable (95% CI on median difference includes 0) in both split halves of the evaluation window.
Awaiting live data — no result yet. Will measure range_pct, range_vs_em, drift_pct at 60m · 120m · close vs a regime-matched baseline, and publish validated or refuted either way.
1.2Gamma sign → intraday autocorrelation (momentum vs mean-reversion)
Consecutive 30-minute returns agree in sign more often than chance in negative-net-GEX sessions (momentum) and less often than chance in positive-net-GEX sessions (mean-reversion), each vs the matched unconditional sign-agreement rate.
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1.3Gamma-flip cross → follow-through
After spot's first downward cross of the gamma flip in a session (≥0.05% beyond the level), forward 30–120 min drift is more negative and range wider than the time-matched baseline; upward reclaims show the mirrored (damping-side) profile. Down-cross and reclaim are tracked as separate result rows.
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1.4Gamma-flip open regime
Sessions that open below the estimated zero-gamma (gamma-flip) level realize a wider RTH range and larger absolute close-to-close return than sessions opening above it.
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1.5Flip level adds no info over continuous GEX
Crossing the estimated gamma-flip level intraday produces no abnormal same-hour drift or range beyond what the CONTINUOUS net-GEX measure already explains — i.e. the threshold is not informative once the level is known.
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1.6Does GEX survive a VIX control?
The predictive power of end-of-day net GEX for next-session realized volatility is approximately zero after controlling for VIX and ATM implied vol — most of the raw GEX-vol relationship is the vol regime itself.
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1.7GEX-range effect vs underlying liquidity
The strength of the net-GEX -> intraday-range relation is monotonically greater in QQQ than in SPX/SPY, because the mechanical hedging impact scales inversely with underlying liquidity.
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1.8Call wall as intraday resistance
An intraday touch of the vendor-style 'call wall' (largest positive-gamma call strike above spot) is followed by rejection (negative forward 30-min return) more often than a distance-matched baseline — and this does NOT survive controlling for distance-to-VWAP and net GEX.
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1.9Put wall as intraday support
An intraday touch of the 'put wall' (largest put-gamma strike below spot) is followed by a bounce (positive forward 30-min return) more often than a distance-matched baseline, and does not survive VWAP/GEX controls.
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1.10Absolute-gamma gravity magnet
Conditional on spot being a given distance from the largest absolute-gamma strike ('gravity' strike) at midday, price drifts TOWARD that strike by the close more often than chance.
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1.11OPEX gamma concentration and last-hour range
On monthly OPEX days, last-hour SPY realized range is LOWER when a single near-money strike holds a large share of total near-money gamma than when gamma is dispersed.
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1.120DTE share degrades naive-convention GEX
On days when 0DTE volume is an unusually large share of total SPX option volume, the naive-convention GEX loses next-session range-predictive power relative to its own historical baseline.
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1.13Aggressor-inferred vs naive dealer gamma
Dealer gamma whose SIGN is inferred from aggressor-classified signed option flow predicts next-session intraday vol better than gamma signed by the naive long-call/short-put convention on raw OI.
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II.Vanna & charm5 studies
Mechanism Plausible — unproven
**Vanna** (∂delta/∂vol) and **charm** (∂delta/∂time) describe how a dealer's delta hedge drifts even when spot is still — as implied vol changes (vanna) or simply as time passes (charm). A dealer holding a hedged book must trade to stay neutral as these second-order greeks move the delta, producing flow that is a function of the vol path and the clock rather than of spot.
2.1OPEX-week charm rally (falsification)
SPX average return over the 5 sessions into monthly OPEX is NOT reliably positive after controlling for the equity risk premium and the contemporaneous VIX change.
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2.3Post-OPEX gamma roll-off destabilization
The week AFTER monthly/quarterly OPEX shows higher realized volatility than the week before, conditional on a large amount of near-money gamma having rolled off at expiration.
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III.Options flow6 studies
Mechanism Plausible — unproven
When customers aggress options (lift offers / hit bids), the dealer takes the other side and is left with a position to hedge. Net options flow (NOF) — aggressor-signed, delta-adjusted premium — is our measure of that customer intent. Two distinct channels can make it predictive:
3.1Large put selling → forward returns
15-minute windows in which net put premium SOLD (aggressor-classified) exceeds the 95th percentile of the trailing 60 sessions are followed by positive excess drift at 30/60/120 minutes relative to the time-of-day- and regime-matched unconditional baseline.
Customers supplying puts leave dealers long puts (long gamma, short delta at inception); the initial delta hedge and its decay path are mechanical buying pressure. Secondarily, an informed-flow channel: if large put sellers are systematically right about downside NOT materializing, their prints carry information regardless of hedge mechanics.
Prior evidence
Option order flow carries information for future prices at daily horizons (Pan & Poteshman 2006; Easley, O'Hara & Srinivas 1998 for theory). The specific intraday premium-percentile form sold by flow vendors ("large put selling is bullish") has, to our knowledge, never been published with baselines. This study tests exactly that claim.
What would kill it
The bootstrap 95% CI on median excess drift_pct includes 0 at BOTH the 30- and 60-minute horizons in BOTH split halves of the evaluation window, aggregated across regimes.
Awaiting live data — no result yet. Will measure drift_pct, range_pct, range_vs_em at 15m · 30m · 60m · 120m · close vs a regime-matched baseline, and publish validated or refuted either way.
3.2Large call buying → forward returns
15-minute windows in which net call premium BOUGHT (aggressor-classified) exceeds the 95th percentile of the trailing 60 sessions are followed by positive excess drift at 30/60/120 minutes relative to the time-of-day- and regime-matched unconditional baseline.
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3.3Signed hedging flow -> short-horizon returns
Top-decile 5-minute delta-signed SPY option flow (HIRO/NOF-style) predicts positive SPY returns over the next 5-15 minutes, before decaying and reversing.
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3.4Flow edge concentration and reversal
The predictive content of delta-signed flow is concentrated in the first 30-60 minutes after a flow spike and reverses by end of day (a microstructure impact-then-reversion signature).
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3.5Sweeps beyond signed flow (falsification)
Block/sweep-tagged bullish option prints ('unusual options activity') do NOT predict positive next-day SPY returns after controlling for contemporaneous signed flow.
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IV.Vol risk premium8 studies
Mechanism Established literature
Implied volatility systematically exceeds subsequently realized volatility — sellers of options are paid a premium for bearing variance risk. The volatility risk premium (VRP = implied − realized) is one of the most robust, best-documented effects in derivatives, and it has a direct product form: the day's expected move (EM), priced from the ATM straddle, is on average *wider* than the range the market actually travels.
4.1Expected-move overpricing base rate
The realized RTH high–low range lands strictly inside the 9:35am straddle expected move on materially more than 50% of sessions, and the overpricing margin (range_vs_em < 1) varies by regime and VIX-level bucket.
The variance risk premium: systematic excess demand for index optionality (hedging flows) keeps implied variance above subsequently realized variance, so the priced move chronically overstates the delivered move. Sellers of the straddle are paid for bearing crash risk.
Prior evidence
The most robust stylized fact in index options: the VRP literature is deep and decades long (demand-pressure effects: Bollen & Whaley 2004; VRP measurement: Carr & Wu and the subsequent literature). CBOE's own 0DTE research reports elevated intraday premia. If our data contradicts this, our EM math is wrong before the market is — this study doubles as a pipeline sanity gate.
What would kill it
EM containment rate's 95% CI includes 0.50 over the evaluation window — no systematic overpricing measurable in our construction.
Awaiting live data — no result yet. Will measure closed_within_em_rate, range_vs_em at close vs a regime-matched baseline, and publish validated or refuted either way.
4.2VRP -> forward equity returns
When the variance risk premium (VIX-squared minus trailing realized variance) is in its top quintile, SPX 1-3 month forward excess returns exceed the bottom-quintile baseline.
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4.3VX term-structure slope → forward realized range
Sessions opening with the VX front-slope in its bottom decile (backwardation) realize wider 1–5 session ranges than baseline, and top-decile contango sessions realize narrower ranges.
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4.4VIX term-structure contango -> forward returns
When the VIX-futures curve is in steep contango (front-to-second-month roll in the top decile), forward returns to being long SPX / short front vol are positive over the following month, with a fat left tail when the curve inverts.
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4.5Front-end put skew -> forward returns
Steepening front-end put skew (25-delta put IV minus ATM IV rising) predicts lower forward SPX returns / higher realized downside over the next 1-4 weeks.
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4.6Expected-move calibration
The IV-implied 1-day expected move is well-calibrated: realized absolute move is within the expected-move band on approximately 68% of sessions (a calibration test, not an edge).
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4.8Negative 0DTE dealer gamma tail channel
Conditional on estimated dealer 0DTE gamma being NEGATIVE (rare), intraday SPX range is HIGHER than baseline — isolating the tail/amplification channel that coexists with the average-dampening of VRP-07.
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V.Dark pool5 studies
Mechanism Narrative — weak evidence
Off-exchange (TRF-reported) prints and dark-pool volume are read by many traders as institutional footprints — volume shelves that mark accumulation/distribution, or an aggregate off-exchange buy pressure (DIX-style) that leads price. We compute derived aggregations only (binned VWAP shelves, significant-print flags) — never a raw tape replica (licensing + compliance, rule 3).
5.1DIX -> forward SPX returns
High DIX (top-decile dollar-weighted dark-pool short-volume ratio) predicts positive forward SPX returns over 1-20 sessions.
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VI.Microstructure3 studies
Mechanism Plausible — unproven
Intraday price is shaped by mechanical market events: the closing auction (MOC) and its published imbalance, the opening-range formation, and reversion to session VWAP. These are structural features of how the session is organized rather than dealer-positioning effects, and they can interact with the gamma regime (an imbalance into a short-gamma close hits a market with no damping).
6.1MOC imbalance -> multi-day reversal
A large one-sided SPY market-on-close imbalance is followed by a reversal (opposite-signed cumulative return) over the next 1-3 sessions.
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6.3VWAP reversion vs ORB (paired)
Deviations of SPY above VWAP predict modest NEGATIVE forward 15-30 min returns (short-side mean reversion), while opening-range-breakout LONG signals show no significant forward edge.
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VII.Composites6 studies
Mechanism Plausible — unproven
Single signals are often weak or regime-dependent; their *interaction* can be stronger and more honest. A cross-signal composite conditions one force on another — e.g. large put selling **while** dealers are in a positive-gamma (damping) regime versus a negative-gamma (amplifying) regime — on the hypothesis that the same flow means different things depending on the market's hedging state.
7.1Put selling × gamma regime (interaction)
The FLOW-01 effect (excess forward drift after 95th-percentile put selling), if present, differs materially by dealer gamma regime — mechanically expected to be larger in negative-gamma sessions, where hedge flow amplifies rather than dampens.
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7.2Composite positioning score
A composite positioning score (net gamma + signed flow + skew + short-horizon momentum) predicts next-session direction better than any single component.
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7.3Similarity-engine skill check (honesty gate)
The median forward path of the top-N analogue days returned by find_similar_days predicts the actual forward path (lower median absolute path error over the next 60/120 min) better than the unconditional median path over the same history.
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7.5Survivors of VIX-control and costs
Any signal in the library that shows a raw edge retains economic significance ONLY IF it survives BOTH a VIX/ATM-IV/realized-vol control AND realistic transaction costs — the decisive filter.
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VIII.Calendar4 studies
Mechanism Plausible — unproven
The options and equity calendar imposes structure that recurs on a schedule: monthly/quarterly OPEX and the positioning unwind around it, index rebalances, AM- vs PM-settlement mechanics for SPX, and day-of-week patterns in 0DTE volume. These are not forces that a single trade creates — they are properties of *when* in the cycle the market is.
8.1Index OPEX pinning to call wall
On monthly OPEX days, SPX/SPY closes NEARER the identified call wall than on random (non-OPEX) days.
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8.2Single-stock OPEX strike clustering
For optionable single stocks, the monthly-OPEX close falls within a small band of the largest-OI strike more often than an unconditional strike-proximity baseline.