Ivolution Research Journal · Refutation

REFUTE: FOMC even-week return cycle

Index returns do NOT follow the claimed FOMC biweekly cycle (higher returns in even weeks of the FOMC calendar); the popular even-week-outperformance pattern fails for the index in our era.

CAL-15 · v1·Refuted·Narrative — weak evidence·Calendar

Cite as: CAL-15: REFUTE: FOMC even-week return cycle. Ivolution Research Journal.

Publication status

The pre-registered hypothesis was refuted on the governed research record. This publication documents the null rather than presenting an edge.

The abstract and product-safe scope metadata are public. Methodology, falsification, limitations, citations, and governed results for CAL-15 are available to Terminal + AI members.

Symbols

Not explicitly scoped

Regimes

Aggregate · Positive gamma · pin · Positive gamma · drift · Negative gamma · trend · Negative gamma · chop · Event day

Horizons

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CAL-15: REFUTE: FOMC even-week return cycle — Ivolution Research Journal