Ivolution Research Journal · Refutation
European-open overnight drift persistence (02:00–03:00 ET)
The historically positive ES return from the exact 02:00 bar open through the 02:59 bar close persists after 2021, clears a 1-bp round-trip cost, remains positive at 3 bps, and localizes against three frozen paired adjacent hours. NQ is the frozen replication.
Cite as: CAL-18: European-open overnight drift persistence (02:00–03:00 ET). Ivolution Research Journal.
Publication status
The pre-registered hypothesis was refuted on the governed research record. This publication documents the null rather than presenting an edge.
The abstract and product-safe scope metadata are public. Methodology, falsification, limitations, citations, and governed results for CAL-18 are available to Terminal + AI members.
Symbols
ES · NQ
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60 min