Ivolution Research Journal · Working paper

Signed hedging flow leads price? (SpotGamma HIRO refutation)

Signed dealer-hedging delta flow at window t does NOT predict forward returns at t+30/60 min beyond the CONTEMPORANEOUS flow-return relationship once VIX/regime-controlled - i.e. HIRO does not lead price as claimed.

FLOW-09 · v1·Proposed·Narrative — weak evidence·Options flow

Cite as: FLOW-09: Signed hedging flow leads price? (SpotGamma HIRO refutation). Ivolution Research Journal.

Publication status

The study is published as a working paper while a required data source remains unavailable. No result exists yet.

The abstract and product-safe scope metadata are public. Methodology, falsification, limitations, citations, and governed results for FLOW-09 are available to Terminal + AI members.

Symbols

Not explicitly scoped

Regimes

Aggregate · Positive gamma · pin · Positive gamma · drift · Negative gamma · trend · Negative gamma · chop · Event day

Horizons

15 min · 30 min · 60 min

FLOW-09: Signed hedging flow leads price? (SpotGamma HIRO refutation) — Ivolution Research Journal