Ivolution Research Journal · Refutation

Literature-exact intraday momentum and strong-open specificity

The exact same-contract ES return from the prior RTH close through 10:00 predicts the final half-hour return; its strictly prior 20th/80th-percentile tails earn positive after-cost P&L in both directions and add information beyond opening-only and stale-signal controls.

MST-02 · v2·Refuted·Established literature·Microstructure

Cite as: MST-02: Literature-exact intraday momentum and strong-open specificity. Ivolution Research Journal.

Publication status

The pre-registered hypothesis was refuted on the governed research record. This publication documents the null rather than presenting an edge.

The abstract and product-safe scope metadata are public. Methodology, falsification, limitations, citations, and governed results for MST-02 are available to Terminal + AI members.

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SPY · ES · NQ

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MST-02: Literature-exact intraday momentum and strong-open specificity — Ivolution Research Journal