Ivolution Research Journal · Working paper

VWAP reversion vs ORB (paired)

Deviations of SPY above VWAP predict modest NEGATIVE forward 15-30 min returns (short-side mean reversion), while opening-range-breakout LONG signals show no significant forward edge.

MST-03 · v1·Proposed·Narrative — weak evidence·Microstructure

Cite as: MST-03: VWAP reversion vs ORB (paired). Ivolution Research Journal.

Publication status

The study is published as a working paper while a required data source remains unavailable. No result exists yet.

The abstract and product-safe scope metadata are public. Methodology, falsification, limitations, citations, and governed results for MST-03 are available to Terminal + AI members.

Symbols

SPY

Regimes

Aggregate · Positive gamma · pin · Positive gamma · drift · Negative gamma · trend · Negative gamma · chop · Event day

Horizons

15 min · 30 min

MST-03: VWAP reversion vs ORB (paired) — Ivolution Research Journal