Ivolution Research Journal · Refutation
REFUTE: DJIA leads the intraday bounce (cross-asset lead-lag)
In the 09:33-09:53 ET window the DJIA (DIA) does NOT lead SPY/QQQ/NVDA at any human-tradeable latency: prior-minute DIA returns carry no material, direction-asymmetric predictive content for the laggard's next-minute return, and the as-narrated V-bounce rule earns no positive net return.
Cite as: MST-11: REFUTE: DJIA leads the intraday bounce (cross-asset lead-lag). Ivolution Research Journal.
Publication status
The pre-registered hypothesis was refuted on the governed research record. This publication documents the null rather than presenting an edge.
The abstract and product-safe scope metadata are public. Methodology, falsification, limitations, citations, and governed results for MST-11 are available to Terminal + AI members.
Symbols
SPY · QQQ · ES
Regimes
Aggregate · Positive gamma · pin · Positive gamma · drift · Negative gamma · trend · Negative gamma · chop · Event day
Horizons
1 min