Ivolution Research Journal · Refutation

Index short-horizon return-autocorrelation reversal (down-day → next-day bounce)

A negative close-to-close session (down day) is followed by a higher next-day close-to-close return than the unconditional baseline — the index exhibits short-horizon (daily) return reversal.

MST-13 · v1·Refuted·Plausible — unproven·Microstructure

Cite as: MST-13: Index short-horizon return-autocorrelation reversal (down-day → next-day bounce). Ivolution Research Journal.

Publication status

The pre-registered hypothesis was refuted on the governed research record. This publication documents the null rather than presenting an edge.

The abstract and product-safe scope metadata are public. Methodology, falsification, limitations, citations, and governed results for MST-13 are available to Terminal + AI members.

Symbols

SPX · QQQ

Regimes

Aggregate · Positive gamma · pin · Positive gamma · drift · Negative gamma · trend · Negative gamma · chop · Event day

Horizons

1 session

MST-13: Index short-horizon return-autocorrelation reversal (down-day → next-day bounce) — Ivolution Research Journal