Ivolution Research Journal · Refutation

Intraday momentum (first-30-min sign → last-30-min / close continuation)

The sign of the first-30-minute return predicts the last-30-minute (into-close) return in the same direction — an intraday momentum continuation the sign-following payoff captures above zero.

MST-14 · v1·Refuted·Plausible — unproven·Microstructure

Cite as: MST-14: Intraday momentum (first-30-min sign → last-30-min / close continuation). Ivolution Research Journal.

Publication status

The pre-registered hypothesis was refuted on the governed research record. This publication documents the null rather than presenting an edge.

The abstract and product-safe scope metadata are public. Methodology, falsification, limitations, citations, and governed results for MST-14 are available to Terminal + AI members.

Symbols

Not explicitly scoped

Regimes

Aggregate · Positive gamma · pin · Positive gamma · drift · Negative gamma · trend · Negative gamma · chop · Event day

Horizons

close

MST-14: Intraday momentum (first-30-min sign → last-30-min / close continuation) — Ivolution Research Journal