Ivolution Research Journal · Refutation

Opening-gap size continuation (first-60-min drift)

ES sessions whose absolute same-contract overnight gap reaches the strictly prior 252-eligible-session 90th percentile continue in the gap direction from the 09:30 open through the 10:29 bar close after a 3-bp round-turn cost. NQ is a frozen cross-index replication.

MST-15 · v2·Refuted·Plausible — unproven·Microstructure

Cite as: MST-15: Opening-gap size continuation (first-60-min drift). Ivolution Research Journal.

Publication status

The pre-registered hypothesis was refuted on the governed research record. This publication documents the null rather than presenting an edge.

The abstract and product-safe scope metadata are public. Methodology, falsification, limitations, citations, and governed results for MST-15 are available to Terminal + AI members.

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SPX · SPY · ES · NQ

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60 min

MST-15: Opening-gap size continuation (first-60-min drift) — Ivolution Research Journal