Ivolution Research Journal · Refutation

Large NQ opening-gap reversal (09:30 → 10:30)

When NQ opens with an absolute same-contract gap at or above the strictly prior 252-eligible-session 90th percentile, fading the gap from the exact 09:30 open through the 10:29 bar close produces a positive return after a 3-bp round-trip cost. ES is the frozen falsification instrument.

MST-18 · v1·Refuted·Narrative — weak evidence·Microstructure

Cite as: MST-18: Large NQ opening-gap reversal (09:30 → 10:30). Ivolution Research Journal.

Publication status

The pre-registered hypothesis was refuted on the governed research record. This publication documents the null rather than presenting an edge.

The abstract and product-safe scope metadata are public. Methodology, falsification, limitations, citations, and governed results for MST-18 are available to Terminal + AI members.

Symbols

ES · NQ

Regimes

Aggregate

Horizons

60 min