Ivolution Research Journal · Refutation

Causal initial-balance breakout execution baseline

After an unusually narrow ES first-hour initial balance, the first completed close breakout predicts positive direction-signed return from the next consecutive one-minute open to the RTH close after fixed adverse execution and fees.

MST-23 · v1·Refuted·Narrative — weak evidence·Microstructure

Cite as: MST-23: Causal initial-balance breakout execution baseline. Ivolution Research Journal.

Publication status

The pre-registered hypothesis was refuted on the governed research record. This publication documents the null rather than presenting an edge.

The abstract and product-safe scope metadata are public. Methodology, falsification, limitations, citations, and governed results for MST-23 are available to Terminal + AI members.

Symbols

ES · NQ

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