Ivolution Research Journal · Refutation
Causal ES VWAP-reversion execution baseline
An ES close unusually far above its strictly prior session-to-date VWAP proxy predicts positive net short return and positive paired excess from the next consecutive one-minute open through 30 minutes.
MST-24 · v1·Refuted·Narrative — weak evidence·Microstructure
Cite as: MST-24: Causal ES VWAP-reversion execution baseline. Ivolution Research Journal.
Publication status
The pre-registered hypothesis was refuted on the governed research record. This publication documents the null rather than presenting an edge.
The abstract and product-safe scope metadata are public. Methodology, falsification, limitations, citations, and governed results for MST-24 are available to Terminal + AI members.
Symbols
ES · NQ
Regimes
Aggregate
Horizons
15 min · 30 min