Ivolution Research Journal · Refutation

Causal abnormal-volume price-shock direction discovery

After a causal same-clock five-minute ES price shock, abnormal volume adds a nonzero executable 30-minute directional effect versus price-shock controls, and the ES-discovered continuation or reversal sign replicates unchanged on NQ.

MST-25 · v1·Refuted·Narrative — weak evidence·Microstructure

Cite as: MST-25: Causal abnormal-volume price-shock direction discovery. Ivolution Research Journal.

Publication status

The pre-registered hypothesis was refuted on the governed research record. This publication documents the null rather than presenting an edge.

The abstract and product-safe scope metadata are public. Methodology, falsification, limitations, citations, and governed results for MST-25 are available to Terminal + AI members.

Symbols

ES · NQ

Regimes

Aggregate

Horizons

15 min · 30 min

MST-25: Causal abnormal-volume price-shock direction discovery — Ivolution Research Journal