Ivolution Research Journal · Refutation

Downside opening semivariance as incremental remaining-RTH volatility state

Among ES sessions already in the strictly trailing high-opening-RV state, downside-dominated opening semivariance raises the remaining-session high-volatility target rate by more than eight percentage points versus upside-dominated opening semivariance, survives total-RV matching, and transfers unchanged to NQ.

MST-30 · v1·Refuted·Established literature·Microstructure

Cite as: MST-30: Downside opening semivariance as incremental remaining-RTH volatility state. Ivolution Research Journal.

Publication status

The pre-registered hypothesis was refuted on the governed research record. This publication documents the null rather than presenting an edge.

The abstract and product-safe scope metadata are public. Methodology, falsification, limitations, citations, and governed results for MST-30 are available to Terminal + AI members.

Symbols

ES · NQ

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Horizons

1 session