Ivolution Research Journal · Refutation

Opening jump concentration as incremental remaining-RTH volatility state

Among sessions already in the strictly trailing high-opening-RV state, openings whose six five-minute squared returns are unusually concentrated in one interval have a remaining-session high-volatility target rate at least eight percentage points below other high-opening-RV sessions, survive total-RV matching, and transfer unchanged from ES to sealed NQ.

MST-31 · v1·Refuted·Plausible — unproven·Microstructure

Cite as: MST-31: Opening jump concentration as incremental remaining-RTH volatility state. Ivolution Research Journal.

Publication status

The pre-registered hypothesis was refuted on the governed research record. This publication documents the null rather than presenting an edge.

The abstract and product-safe scope metadata are public. Methodology, falsification, limitations, citations, and governed results for MST-31 are available to Terminal + AI members.

Symbols

ES · NQ

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Horizons

1 session

MST-31: Opening jump concentration as incremental remaining-RTH volatility state — Ivolution Research Journal