Ivolution Research Journal · Refutation

Opening abnormal volume as incremental remaining-RTH volatility state

At 10:00 ET, sessions whose 09:30-09:59 front-contract volume is unusually high have a higher 10:00-15:59 high-realized-volatility target rate than other sessions after outcome-blind matching on causal opening realized volatility, and the effect transfers unchanged from ES to sealed NQ.

MST-32 · v1·Refuted·Narrative — weak evidence·Microstructure

Cite as: MST-32: Opening abnormal volume as incremental remaining-RTH volatility state. Ivolution Research Journal.

Publication status

The pre-registered hypothesis was refuted on the governed research record. This publication documents the null rather than presenting an edge.

The abstract and product-safe scope metadata are public. Methodology, falsification, limitations, citations, and governed results for MST-32 are available to Terminal + AI members.

Symbols

ES · NQ

Regimes

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Horizons

1 session