Ivolution Research Journal · Refutation
REFUTE: Fed net-liquidity changes predict index returns
Weekly changes in Fed net liquidity (reserves minus TGA minus RRP, or the popular proxy) do NOT predict forward weekly index returns once trend is controlled.
Cite as: SYS-07: REFUTE: Fed net-liquidity changes predict index returns. Ivolution Research Journal.
Publication status
The pre-registered hypothesis was refuted on the governed research record. This publication documents the null rather than presenting an edge.
The abstract and product-safe scope metadata are public. Methodology, falsification, limitations, citations, and governed results for SYS-07 are available to Terminal + AI members.
Symbols
Not explicitly scoped
Regimes
Aggregate · Positive gamma · pin · Positive gamma · drift · Negative gamma · trend · Negative gamma · chop · Event day
Horizons
5 sessions